As we wait for electoral noise to subside, we anticipate renewed activity in the country’s reinvigorated political chambers.
Expected to unfold soon is a curtain-raiser of sorts — a possible prelude to the September 23 confirmation of charges hearing of former president Rodrigo Duterte in The Netherlands. These twin events, if they indeed happen, could reverberate all the way to 2028, when voters will once again troop to the polls to choose a new president.
The big question that begs for an answer is whether or not the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte will proceed. Doubts about it pushing through were reinforced by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently declaring that he was open to reconciling with the Dutertes and even lamenting how politics has become such a distraction in effective governance. Thursday morning opened with a call by the President for courtesy resignations of all Cabinet secretaries to allow for a “bold reset” by an administration that is “sharper, faster, and fully focused on the people’s most pressing needs.”
If the impeachment trial is a go, the Senate already has a proposed timetable: It can receive the House panel of prosecutors by June 2 and then convene as an impeachment court the following day, June 3, at 9 am. There has been loose talk that some members of the Marcos Cabinet have joined the Toby Tiangco anti-impeachment trial bandwagon and have been looking for a convenient way to extricate the President from the political predicament he has found himself in. Some are saying they are looking at the Supreme Court deciding on a Sara Duterte petition that was filed in February (READ: Sara Duterte asks Supreme Court to block her impeachment trial)
If you recall, Marcos’ trust and approval ratings had plunged drastically, going by survey results as of March. Taken in the aftermath of Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest and delivery to the International Criminal Court, the President’s approval rating was at a mere 25% (a 17-percentage point drop from February). His trust ratings mirrored the same percentage drop, with a similar 25% expressing trust in him. With three years to go in his presidency, what profound impact could he boast of having had in terms of governance? Duterte being handed over to the ICC to face charges of crimes against humanity? His campaign promise of P20/kilo of rice being delivered in very select areas?
Why the seeming cold feet insofar as the impeachment trial is concerned? To some quarters, it would be politically embarrassing — if not political suicide — for the administration to push through, only to fail at conviction because it didn’t have the numbers among senator-judges (a two-thirds vote is needed to convict and remove, and forever ban Sara from public office).
See whether you share an early assessment of emerging winners and their impact on the impeachment court. You can also watch the video version of our House reporter Dwight de Leon explaining Sara’s possible acquittal numbers here.
BATTLE FOR SPEAKERSHIP. Central to this tussle, besides Malacañang itself, is the battle for speakership at the House of Representatives. Dwight brings us up close to that emerging fight and asks the obvious question: Can Martin Romualdez retain the speakership in the 20th Congress? If his allies are to be believed, the President’s cousin has it in the bag, given the supermajority who have signed a manifesto of support. Good to remember that prosecutors will come from the House, and Romualdez has been quick to invite incoming legislators Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno to be part of the prosecution team. Both have accepted.
Historical events have taught us, however, that manifestos of support don’t really mean much and no speaker can rest and remain too complacent until D-Day itself. At no time than this do budget allocations become more evident as a political tool among lawmakers.
A similar power play is likely in the Senate, as it will be the Senate president who will steer the impeachment trial — if and when it does happen. Will Chiz Escudero be replaced by Tito Sotto, who’s making a comeback in the Senate? That’s something worth watching.
WINNERS. If you’d like to catch up on unexpected winners in tough or exciting races — and how they managed it — click on the following stories and read at your own pace:
- Heart sell: The messages that clicked in the 2025 senatorial elections
- What data tells us about the 2025 elections
- Elections 2025 tipping point: The Risa effect?
- How Kiko-Bam made a successful Senate comeback
- The future of Dutertes, Davao City after the dynasty’s 2025 landslide wins
After the midterm elections, political decibel levels will gradually increase. Will it be to Marcos’ advantage to keep them high or is he better off modulating the noise? It is an existential question.
- More people voted for a party-list group in the 2025 elections. Can this trend continue?
- Amanda Echanis fights time: She’s a prisoner, mother, and now a student leader
- Why TUCP’s Raymond Mendoza has been in Congress since 2009 despite term limits
- Sara’s revenge tour in Manila ends with 2 survivors, 1 casualty
- For the Villars, everything is a family business
– Rappler.com
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