EASTERN SAMAR, Philippines – At 58, Gemma Amit has seen enough typhoons to know when the weather is about to change. She’s learned to read the signs – the red sky, the chirping of birds, the sudden calm – each a precursor to the chaos that’s soon to unfold.
She recalls the old belief passed down by her forefathers from Borongan, Eastern Samar: “Pag nagpupurula it langit, naghuhuni an katamsihan, ura-ura an paghimutang han mga bukad pati tanom; mayda karaotan hit panahon nga tikadara-on.”
(When the sky turns red, the birds chirp, and the flowers and plants bloom beautifully, bad weather is about to come.)
These signs have shaped the way people in the region prepare for the storms that batter the Philippines with relentless frequency.
Most survivors of Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) remember how deceptive the day before its landfall was in late 2013. The skies were clear, flowers were in full bloom, and the atmosphere was cheerful. Children played outdoors, blissfully unaware of the destruction ahead.
For many, it’s a feeling that lingers: the deceptive serenity before the devastation. It was, as they now call it, “the calm before the storm.”
These weather phenomena, while not officially named, are examples of weather lore – predictions drawn from observations of the sky, animals, and nature that serve as natural signs of what’s to come. While some of these beliefs have scientific explanations, their reliability, especially in tropical regions like the Philippines, remains contested.
What are these occurrences, and can they really predict the intensity of an impending disaster?
Arvin Gavan, an instructor from the Department of Meteorology at Visayas State University (VSU), provided some scientific insights into these phenomena.
‘The sky is bleeding’
The phenomenon of red skies, often described as “bloody” and ominous and traditionally referred to as a “sailor’s warning,” has both fascinated and alarmed many. Gavan explained that the red hue in the sky in the morning is usually interpreted as a sign of incoming bad weather, following a period of fair weather.
“When bright red skies are seen in the morning, they suggest a sinking high-pressure system to the east, with a low-pressure system approaching from the west, bringing bad weather,” he explained.
This method of predicting weather is best suited for mid-latitudes – regions between 30 to 60 degrees north and south – where weather systems generally move eastward. However, Gavan clarified that this lore does not fully apply to the Philippines, located in the tropics, where weather systems typically move from east to west.
Red skies may not always indicate bad weather. They can also result from other phenomena, such as volcanic activity or human-induced pollution, which increase aerosol content in the atmosphere.
‘Calm before the storm’
The so-called “calm before the storm” is another well-known weather lore. Gavan attributed this calm to the storm drawing in warm, moist air from its surroundings, leaving behind an area of low pressure filled by sinking, warm, dry air – essentially, a buildup of moisture waiting to be unleashed. This results in temporarily clear and pleasant weather ahead of and behind the storm.
However, Gavan said clear weather is not a definitive indicator of destruction.
“In some cases, a storm might hit a different area, leaving your location with calm weather that doesn’t lead to anything catastrophic,” he said.
He said there are also instances where poor weather conditions occur well before a destructive storm makes landfall, making the “calm before the storm” unreliable as a predictor of severity.
Lore and science
While weather lore, like red skies and calm weather, offers short-term insights, its scope is limited. Gavan notes that most weather lore applies to same-day forecasts and should not be used for long-range predictions.
“For example, farmers often rely on observations such as cloud types, cloud locations, corona effects around the moon, animal behavior, or plant phenology to predict weather. While these methods have some reliability, their validity still needs further scientific study,” Gavan said.
The reliance on weather lore shows how many Filipino communities adapt to their surroundings and navigate nature’s uncertainties. However, Gavan stressed the need to complement these traditional beliefs with scientific data for a more accurate understanding of atmospheric conditions.
He said it is crucial for people to frequently consult weather bulletins from the state weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), especially during severe weather disturbances.
“These updates provide a clearer picture of the atmosphere and how it may develop,” he said. – Rappler.com
Efren Cyril Bocar is a student journalist from Llorente, Eastern Samar, enrolled in English Language Studies at the Visayas State University. A managing editor of Amaranth, Cyril is an Aries Rufo Journalism Fellow of Rappler for 2024.